Colorado’s 3rd District

U.S. House · CO-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 68% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 48%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 51.3%

Dwayne L. Romero
Republican 48.1%

Jeff Hurd, incumbent
Other 0.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 68% chance (68% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	68%
Orbit	Democrat	68%
50/50 blend	Democrat	68%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
CO-3	51.3%	48.1%	0.6%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−3.6	43.9%+4.2	1.2%−0.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Dccc Targeting Team	20–Oct 21, 2026	402	likely voters	Dwayne Romero (D) 47 Jeff Hurd (R) 46	See the poll
Keating Research, Inc.	21–Jul 23, 2026	500	likely voters	Jeff Hurd (R) 46 Dwayne Romero (D) 45	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 47 Generic Democrat (D) 37	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Jeff Hurd (R) 46 Alex Kelloff (D) 41	See the poll
Expedition Strategies	8–Jan 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Jeff Hurd (R) 48 Alex Kelloff (D) 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	21.1% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Jeff Hurd · Republican

Primary results

Held June 30, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Dwayne L. Romero	54.8%	47,848 votes
Republican primary	Jeff Hurd	66.4%	62,536 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Jeff Hurd
source
Democrat Challenger

Dwayne L. Romero
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 5.0 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.4 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

CO-7 Democrat, safe seat
CO-2 Democrat, safe seat
CO-1 Democrat, safe seat
CO-5 Republican, toss-up
CO-6 Democrat, safe seat
CO-8 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026