Winner
Richard E. Neal 0.0%
Riding profile
MA-1
The question
MA-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMA-1 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +7.6 | 5.1% +33.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MA-1, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
NEAL, RICHARD E
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Sep 1, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Neal, Richard E
- Other Challenger
Milleron, Nadia D
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026