Massachusetts’s 1st District
U.S. House · MA-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Other | Republican | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA-1 | 62.3% | 37.5% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+7.4 | 1.2%+36.2 | 43.9%−43.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 15.9% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Richard E. Neal · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Richard E. Neal | 0.0% |
|---|
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Richard E. Neal
source - Other Challenger
Milleron, Nadia D
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 16.0 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 24.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated