Riding profile

MA-1

US House district — MA · Mixed · us ma

The question

MA-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MA-1, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

NEAL, RICHARD E

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Neal, Richard E

  • Democrat Challenger

    Whalen, Jeromie Patrick Dr.

  • Other Challenger

    Milleron, Nadia D

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.4%
  • Other 38.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other Republican
HereMA-1 61.4%38.5%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +9.5 5.4% +33.1 46.6% −46.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
16.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026