Riding profile

MA-2

US House district — MA · Mixed · us ma

The question

MA-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MA-2, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCGOVERN, JAMES P

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mcgovern, James P

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 67.8%
  • Other 32.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other Republican
HereMA-2 67.8%32.1%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +16.0 5.4% +26.7 46.6% −46.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
29.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026