Riding profile

MA-4

US House district — MA · Mixed · us ma

The question

MA-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MA-4, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 27% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

AUCHINCLOSS, JAKE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Auchincloss, Jake

  • Democrat Challenger

    Leckey, Ihssane

  • Democrat Challenger

    Poulos, Jason

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
46.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 73.4%
  • Other 26.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other Republican
HereMA-4 73.4%26.6%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +21.5 5.4% +21.1 46.6% −46.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
40.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026