Riding profile

MA-6

US House district — MA · Mixed · us ma

The question

MA-6: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.9%

    Daniel Arrigg Koh

  • Other 24.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other
HereMA-6 75.9%24.1%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +21.6 5.1% +19.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MA-6, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 76% vote share, against 24% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MOULTON, SETH

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Sep 1, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Dan Koh 0.0%

Republican primary

Winner

Micah Quinney Jones 100.0%

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Koh, Daniel Arrigg

  • Republican Open seat

    Jones, Micah Q.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
46.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026