Winner
Katherine M. Clark 0.0%
Riding profile
MA-5
The question
MA-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 57.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMA-5 | 78.5% | 21.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +24.2 | 5.1% +16.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MA-5, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 79% vote share, against 22% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
CLARK, KATHERINE
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Sep 1, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Clark, Katherine
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026