Riding profile

MA-5

US House district — MA · Mixed · us ma

The question

MA-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MA-5, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 78% vote share, against 22% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CLARK, KATHERINE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Clark, Katherine

  • Democrat Challenger

    Samman, Tarik

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
57.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 78.5%
  • Other 21.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other Republican
HereMA-5 78.5%21.5%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +26.6 5.4% +16.1 46.6% −46.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
51.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026