Massachusetts’s 5th District
U.S. House · MA-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 57.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Other | Republican | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA-5 | 78.9% | 20.9% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+24.0 | 1.2%+19.7 | 43.9%−43.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.5% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Katherine M. Clark · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Katherine M. Clark | 0.0% |
|---|
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Katherine M. Clark
source
Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 51.0 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 57.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated