Riding profile

MA-8

US House district — MA · Mixed · us ma

The question

MA-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MA-8, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 71% vote share, against 26% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LYNCH, STEPHEN

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Stephen F. Lynch 62%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 19, 2026 · byworkbench_strategy

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Lynch, Stephen

  • Democrat Challenger

    Roath, Patrick Thomas

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 71.1%
  • Republican 25.9%
  • Other 3.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMA-8 71.1%25.9%3.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +19.2 46.6% −20.7 5.4% −2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
38.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026