Winner
Lori Loureiro Trahan 100.0%
Riding profile
MA-3
The question
MA-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 52.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMA-3 | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +21.8 | 5.1% +18.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MA-3, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 76% vote share, against 24% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
TRAHAN, LORI
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Sep 1, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Gary J. Grossi 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Trahan, Lori
-
Republican Challenger Grossi, Gary J.
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026