Riding profile

MA-3

US House district — MA · Mixed · us ma

The question

MA-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MA-3, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 76% vote share, against 24% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TRAHAN, LORI

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Trahan, Lori

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
52.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 76.0%
  • Other 23.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other Republican
HereMA-3 76.0%23.9%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +24.1 5.4% +18.5 46.6% −46.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
46.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026