Riding profile

MA-9

US House district — MA · Mixed · us ma

The question

MA-9: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MA-9, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KEATING, WILLIAM R

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Keating, William R

  • Democrat Challenger

    Swallow, Craig M Mr

  • Republican Challenger

    Macallister, Robert Tyler

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.6%
  • Republican 39.7%
  • Other 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMA-9 58.6%39.7%1.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +6.8 46.6% −7.0 5.4% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
12.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026