Winner
Bill Keating 0.0%
Riding profile
MA-9
The question
MA-9: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 24.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMA-9 | 61.0% | 36.6% | 2.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +6.7 | 44.9% −8.3 | 5.1% −2.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MA-9, a mixed riding in MA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 37% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
KEATING, WILLIAM R
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Sep 1, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
R. Tyler MacAllister 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Keating, William R
-
Republican Challenger Macallister, Robert Tyler
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026