Winner
Christopher J. Gallant 63.0%
Riding profile
NY-1
The question
NY-1: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.8
- P(close race)
- 53%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNY-1 | 47.8% | 43.0% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −6.5 | 44.9% −1.9 | 5.1% +4.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC | 10–Dec 11 | 579 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NY-1, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 48% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
NICK, LALOTA
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Challenger
Gallant, Christopher
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026