Riding profile

NY-1

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-1: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

NY-1, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 48% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

NICK, LALOTA

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Nick, Lalota

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gallant, Christopher

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jacobs, Jonathan Lewis

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ventouras, Lukas

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
84%
Mean margin (pts)
1.9
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 47.9%
  • Democrat 46.3%
  • Other 5.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNY-1 47.9%46.3%5.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +1.2 51.9% −5.6 5.4% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 10–Dec 11 579 RV
Republican 41 Democrat 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
4.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026