New York’s 1st District
U.S. House · NY-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 59% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 50%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 69% chance (59% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 59% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 69% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 64% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-1 | 46.5% | 44.8% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%−8.4 | 43.9%+0.9 | 1.2%+7.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 10.4% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
Nick, Lalota · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Christopher J. Gallant | 63.0% | 12,132 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Nick LaLota | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 4.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated