New York’s 2nd District
U.S. House · NY-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 69% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 60% chance (69% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 69% |
| Orbit | Republican | 60% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 64% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-2 | 45.7% | 42.3% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+1.8 | 54.9%−12.6 | 1.2%+10.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 20.7% (± 0.6) |
|---|
Current member
Andrew Garbarino · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Patrick Halpin | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Andrew Garbarino | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 13.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated