Riding profile

NY-2

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NY-2, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 49% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GARBARINO, ANDREW

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Garbarino, Andrew

  • Democrat Challenger

    Halpin, Patrick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Murphy, Jessica Nicole

  • Democrat Challenger

    Petersen, Garrett

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.1
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 48.6%
  • Democrat 39.4%
  • Other 12.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNY-2 48.6%39.4%12.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +1.9 51.9% −12.4 5.4% +6.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
13.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026