Riding profile

NY-2

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-2: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
74%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 45.5%
  • Democrat 41.8%
  • Other 12.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNY-2 45.5%41.8%12.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +0.6 54.3% −12.5 5.1% +7.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-2, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 46% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

GARBARINO, ANDREW

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Garbarino, Andrew

  • Democrat Challenger

    Halpin, Patrick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Murphy, Jessica Nicole

  • Democrat Challenger

    Petersen, Garrett

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
13.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026