Riding profile

NY-14

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-14: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.7%

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez incumbent

  • Republican 21.5%
  • Other 13.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-14 64.7%21.5%13.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +10.3 44.9% −23.4 5.1% +8.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-14, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 22% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

OCASIO-CORTEZ, ALEXANDRIA

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 87.3%

30,189 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ocasio-Cortez, Alexandria

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
31.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026