Riding profile

NY-14

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-14: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-14, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 25% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

OCASIO-CORTEZ, ALEXANDRIA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ocasio-Cortez, Alexandria

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dolan, Martin William Mr

  • Republican Challenger

    Forte, Tina

  • Republican Challenger

    Hysenaj, Diamant

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.2%
  • Republican 24.6%
  • Other 13.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-14 62.2%24.6%13.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +10.4 46.6% −22.1 5.4% +7.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
31.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026