Riding profile

NY-15

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-15: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-15, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 52-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 15% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TORRES, RITCHIE JOHN

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Ritchie Torres 60%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll May 10, 2026 · bybraun_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Torres, Ritchie John

  • Democrat Challenger

    Blake, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Nemorin, Dalourny

  • Democrat Challenger

    Septimo, Amanda N

  • Democrat Challenger

    Vega, Jose David

  • Other Challenger

    Easton, Andre Clement Mr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
58.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 73.5%
  • Republican 15.5%
  • Other 11.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-15 73.5%15.5%11.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +21.6 46.6% −31.2 5.4% +5.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
51.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026