Riding profile

NY-13

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-13: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-13, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 62-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 79% vote share, against 12% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ESPAILLAT, ADRIANO

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Adriano Espaillat 35%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 11, 2026 · bymercury_public_affairs

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Espaillat, Adriano

  • Democrat Challenger

    Amador, Jaliel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Avila Chevalier, Darializa

  • Democrat Challenger

    Romero, Oscar

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
67.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 79.4%
  • Republican 11.5%
  • Other 9.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-13 79.4%11.5%9.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +27.5 46.6% −35.1 5.4% +3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
61.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026