Winner
Darializa Avila Chevalier 49.6%
Riding profile
NY-13
The question
NY-13: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 72.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Other | Republican | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNY-13 | 81.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +27.5 | 5.1% +4.6 | 44.9% −36.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NY-13, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 62-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 82% vote share, against 10% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
ESPAILLAT, ADRIANO
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Challenger
Avila Chevalier, Darializa
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026