Riding profile

NY-12

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-12, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 53-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 75% vote share, against 17% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

NADLER, JERROLD L

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Micah Lasher 21.6%

8 candidates polled · Latest poll May 17, 2026 · byemerson_college

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Nadler, Jerrold L

  • Democrat Open seat

    Bores, Alexander

  • Democrat Open seat

    Bottcher, Erik

  • Democrat Open seat

    Conway, George

  • Democrat Open seat

    Diep, Christopher

  • Democrat Open seat

    Dunn, Laura L. Ms. Esq.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Elkind, Liam

  • Democrat Open seat

    Floyd, Jami

  • Democrat Open seat

    Kasky, Cameron

  • Democrat Open seat

    Lasher, Micah Charles

  • Democrat Open seat

    Pardee, Alan

  • Democrat Open seat

    Schlossberg, John (Jack) Bouvier Kenne

  • Democrat Open seat

    Schwalbe, Nina

  • Democrat Open seat

    Shurka, Mathew

  • Democrat Open seat

    Timmins, Patrick John Mr.

  • Other Open seat

    Negron, Wilneida

  • Other Open seat

    Ortiz, Karen

  • Republican Open seat

    Jordan, Amy

  • Republican Open seat

    Shinkle, Caroline

  • Republican Open seat

    Zappone, Massimiliano

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
57.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 74.9%
  • Republican 17.0%
  • Other 8.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-12 74.9%17.0%8.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +23.0 46.6% −29.7 5.4% +2.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
52.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026