New York’s 12th District
U.S. House · NY-12
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 69.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-12 | 81.0% | 10.9% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+26.1 | 43.9%−33.0 | 1.2%+6.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 10.9% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Nadler, Jerrold L · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Micah C. Lasher | 39.2% | 40,106 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Caroline Shinkle | 0.0% |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 52.7 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 69.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated