Riding profile

NY-12

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
63.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 77.3%

    Micah Charles Lasher

  • Republican 13.9%
  • Other 8.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-12 77.3%13.9%8.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +23.0 44.9% −31.1 5.1% +3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-12, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 53-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 77% vote share, against 14% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

NADLER, JERROLD L

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Micah C. Lasher 39.2%

40,106 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Lasher, Micah Charles

  • Other Open seat

    Negron, Wilneida

  • Other Open seat

    Ortiz, Karen

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
52.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026