Riding profile

NY-7

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
48.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 67.3%

    Claire Valdez

  • Other 19.1%
  • Republican 13.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other Republican
HereNY-7 67.3%19.1%13.6%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +13.0 5.1% +14.0 44.9% −31.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-7, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 19% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

VELAZQUEZ, NYDIA M.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Claire Valdez 56.1%

37,531 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Valdez, Claire

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
40.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026