New York’s 7th District
U.S. House · NY-7
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 44.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Other | Republican | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-7 | 64.1% | 18.3% | 17.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+9.2 | 1.2%+17.1 | 43.9%−26.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 31.5% (± 0.7) |
|---|
Current member
Velazquez, Nydia M. · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Claire Valdez | 56.1% | 37,531 votes |
|---|
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 40.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 44.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated