Riding profile

NY-7

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-7, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 18% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

VELAZQUEZ, NYDIA M.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Claire Valdez 22.9%

4 candidates polled · Latest poll May 17, 2026 · byemerson_college

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Velazquez, Nydia M.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hutchison, Evan Hale

  • Democrat Open seat

    Kumar, Vichal

  • Democrat Open seat

    Reynoso, Antonio

  • Democrat Open seat

    Valdez, Claire

  • Democrat Open seat

    Won, Julie Jaehee

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
46.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.8%
  • Other 18.5%
  • Republican 16.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other Republican
HereNY-7 64.8%18.5%16.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +13.0 5.4% +13.0 46.6% −30.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
40.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026