Riding profile

NY-9

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-9: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-9, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 19% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CLARKE, YVETTE D

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Clarke, Yvette D

  • Democrat Challenger

    Goldfarb, Michael

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
54.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 72.7%
  • Republican 18.5%
  • Other 8.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-9 72.7%18.5%8.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +20.8 46.6% −28.1 5.4% +3.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
48.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026