Riding profile

NY-10

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-10, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 60-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 78% vote share, against 12% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GOLDMAN, DANIEL

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Brad Lander 56.6%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll May 17, 2026 · byemerson_college

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Goldman, Daniel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lander, Brad Mr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
66.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 78.1%
  • Republican 11.7%
  • Other 10.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-10 78.1%11.7%10.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +26.2 46.6% −34.9 5.4% +4.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
60.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026