Riding profile

NY-10

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
69.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 80.5%

    Brad Lander

  • Other 10.8%
  • Republican 8.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other Republican
HereNY-10 80.5%10.8%8.7%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +26.2 5.1% +5.7 44.9% −36.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-10, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 60-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 81% vote share, against 11% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GOLDMAN, DANIEL

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Brad Lander 65.9%

55,060 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lander, Brad Mr.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
60.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026