Riding profile

NY-8

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-8, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 74% vote share, against 18% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JEFFRIES, HAKEEM

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Jeffries, Hakeem

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bostic, Vance

  • Democrat Challenger

    Osse, Chi

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
55.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 74.0%
  • Republican 18.3%
  • Other 7.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-8 74.0%18.3%7.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +22.1 46.6% −28.4 5.4% +2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
49.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026