Riding profile

NY-8

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
61.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 76.4%
  • Republican 15.2%
  • Other 8.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-8 76.4%15.2%8.4%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +22.1 44.9% −29.7 5.1% +3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-8, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 76% vote share, against 15% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JEFFRIES, HAKEEM

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Jeffries, Hakeem

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bostic, Vance

  • Democrat Challenger

    Osse, Chi

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
49.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026