Riding profile

NY-5

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-5, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 21% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MEEKS, GREGORY W.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Meeks, Gregory W.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
52.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 73.4%
  • Republican 21.4%
  • Other 5.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-5 73.4%21.4%5.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +21.5 46.6% −25.2 5.4% −0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
45.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026