New York’s 5th District
U.S. House · NY-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 57.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-5 | 76.2% | 18.5% | 5.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+21.3 | 43.9%−25.3 | 1.2%+4.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 17.6% (± 0.7) |
|---|
Current member
Gregory Meeks · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Gregory Meeks | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | George Marsh | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 45.8 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 57.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated