Winner
Jeanine C. Driscoll 91.1%
Riding profile
NY-4
The question
NY-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNY-4 | 55.7% | 38.0% | 6.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +1.3 | 44.9% −6.9 | 5.1% +1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research Protecting American Consumers Together | 9–Feb 17 | 500 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NY-4, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Challenger
Tarnoff, Blay
-
Republican Challenger Driscoll, Jeanine
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026