Riding profile

NY-4

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-4, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bierria-Anderson, Kiana

  • Democrat Challenger

    Darling, Taylor R

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gillen, Laura

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jones, Gian A

  • Republican Challenger

    Driscoll, Jeanine

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcgrath, Dennis Joseph Mr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Suber Williams, Marvin

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.1%
  • Republican 42.9%
  • Other 3.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-4 53.1%42.9%3.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +1.3 46.6% −3.7 5.4% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Impact Research Protecting American Consumers Together 9–Feb 17 500 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
5.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026