New York’s 4th District
U.S. House · NY-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 89% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 89% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 94% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-4 | 56.1% | 38.2% | 5.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+1.2 | 43.9%−5.7 | 1.2%+4.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 16.7% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Laura Gillen | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jeanine C. Driscoll | 91.1% | 12,892 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 5.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 18.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated