Riding profile

NY-3

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-3, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SUOZZI, THOMAS

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Suozzi, Thomas

  • Democrat Challenger

    Welch, Danielle

  • Republican Challenger

    Hach, Gregory

  • Republican Challenger

    Lipetri, Mike

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.3%
  • Republican 40.0%
  • Other 6.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-3 53.3%40.0%6.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +1.4 46.6% −6.6 5.4% +1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
6.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026