New York’s 3rd District
U.S. House · NY-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 90% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 90% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-3 | 56.1% | 37.2% | 6.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+1.2 | 43.9%−6.7 | 1.2%+5.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 12.0% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
Thomas R. Suozzi · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Thomas R. Suozzi | 79.8% | 20,820 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Michael J. LiPetri Jr | 82.6% | 10,898 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 6.4 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated