Riding profile

NY-3

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.7%

    Thomas Suozzi incumbent

  • Republican 37.0%

    Mike Lipetri

  • Other 7.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-3 55.7%37.0%7.3%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +1.3 44.9% −7.9 5.1% +2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-3, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 37% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SUOZZI, THOMAS

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Thomas R. Suozzi 79.8%

20,820 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Michael J. LiPetri Jr 82.6%

10,898 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Suozzi, Thomas

  • Republican Challenger

    Lipetri, Mike

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
6.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026