Riding profile

NY-16

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-16: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-16, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 24% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LATIMER, GEORGE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Latimer, George

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 70.1%
  • Republican 24.2%
  • Other 5.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-16 70.1%24.2%5.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +18.2 46.6% −22.4 5.4% +0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
39.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026