Riding profile

NY-16

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-16: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 72.5%
  • Republican 21.2%
  • Other 6.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-16 72.5%21.2%6.3%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +18.2 44.9% −23.7 5.1% +1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-16, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 72% vote share, against 21% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LATIMER, GEORGE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Latimer, George

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
39.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026