New York’s 17th District

U.S. House · NY-17

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.0%

Cait Conley
Republican 45.6%

Mike Lawler, incumbent
Other 4.4%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 76% chance (73% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	73%
Orbit	Democrat	76%
50/50 blend	Democrat	74%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NY-17	50.0%	45.6%	4.4%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−4.9	43.9%+1.7	1.2%+3.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Mclaughlin & Associates	28–Sep 30, 2026	400	likely voters	Mike Lawler (R) 50 Cait Conley (D) 47	See the poll
Emerson College PIX 11	27–Sep 29, 2026	400	likely voters	Cait Conley (D) 48 Mike Lawler (R) 46	See the poll
Co/Efficient	20–Jul 22, 2026	1,292	likely voters	Mike Lawler (R) 50 Cait Conley (D) 45	See the poll
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC	Jun 27, 2026 – Jul 1, 2026	509	likely voters	Cait Conley (D) 51 Mike Lawler (R) 45	See the poll
Impact Research Protecting American Consumers Together	9–Feb 17, 2026	500	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 44 Generic Republican (R) 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	15.0% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Mike Lawler · Republican

Primary results

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Cait Conley	49.6%	23,087 votes
Republican primary	Mike Lawler	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mike Lawler
source
Democrat Challenger

Cait Conley
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 1.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.8 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NY-16 Democrat, safe seat
NY-18 Democrat, safe seat
NY-15 Democrat, safe seat
NY-14 Democrat, safe seat
NY-3 Democrat, safe seat
NY-13 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026