Riding profile

NY-17

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-17: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

NY-17, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

LAWLER, MICHAEL VINCENT

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Cait Conley 35%

13 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 16, 2026 · bytavern_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Lawler, Michael Vincent

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cappello, John

  • Democrat Challenger

    Chatzky, Peter

  • Democrat Challenger

    Conley, Cait

  • Democrat Challenger

    Davidson, Beth

  • Democrat Challenger

    Phillips-Staley, Effie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Reinmann, Jessica

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sacks, Mike

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sullivan, John

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 49.6%
  • Republican 45.9%
  • Other 4.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-17 49.6%45.9%4.5%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −2.3 46.6% −0.7 5.4% −0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC Jun 27 – Jul 1 509 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 45
link
Impact Research Protecting American Consumers Together 9–Feb 17 500 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 39
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
1.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026