Winner
Cait Conley 49.6%
Riding profile
NY-17
The question
NY-17: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.3
- P(close race)
- 43%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNY-17 | 49.6% | 44.3% | 6.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −4.8 | 44.9% −0.6 | 5.1% +1.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Co/Efficient | 20–Jul 22 | 1,292 | LV | link | |
| Fm3 Research House Majority PAC | Jun 27 – Jul 1 | 509 | LV | link | |
| Impact Research Protecting American Consumers Together | 9–Feb 17 | 500 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NY-17, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 44% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
LAWLER, MICHAEL VINCENT
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Challenger
Conley, Cait
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026