New York’s 18th District

U.S. House · NY-18

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 57.4%

Pat Ryan, incumbent
Republican 36.3%

Jackie Auringer
Other 6.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 97% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	97%
50/50 blend	Democrat	98%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NY-18	57.4%	36.3%	6.3%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+2.5	43.9%−7.5	1.2%+5.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling Scenario 1	29–Sep 30, 2026	561	registered voters	Generic Democrat (D) 51 Generic Republican (R) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 2	29–Sep 30, 2026	561	registered voters	Pat Ryan (D) 52 Jackie Auringer (R) 35	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Scenario 1	23–Jul 26, 2026	500	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 46 Generic Republican (R) 41	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Scenario 2	23–Jul 26, 2026	500	likely voters	Pat Ryan (D) 53 Jackie Auringer (R) 39	See the poll
Impact Research Protecting American Consumers Together	9–Feb 17, 2026	500	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 42 Generic Republican (R) 35	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	14.8% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Pat Ryan · Democrat

Primary results

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Pat Ryan	0.0%
Republican primary	Jackie Auringer	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Pat Ryan
source
Republican Challenger

Jackie Auringer
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 13.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 21.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NY-17 Democrat, toss-up
NY-16 Democrat, safe seat
NY-15 Democrat, safe seat
NY-14 Democrat, safe seat
NY-13 Democrat, safe seat
NY-3 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026