Riding profile

NY-18

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-18: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-18, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RYAN, PATRICK

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ryan, Patrick

  • Republican Challenger

    Auringer, Jackie Mary

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 54.7%
  • Republican 38.1%
  • Other 7.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-18 54.7%38.1%7.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +2.9 46.6% −8.5 5.4% +1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Impact Research Protecting American Consumers Together 9–Feb 17 500 LV
Democrat 42 Republican 35
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
13.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026