Riding profile

NY-18

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-18: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 56.8%
  • Republican 34.7%
  • Other 8.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-18 56.8%34.7%8.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +2.5 44.9% −10.2 5.1% +3.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Global Strategy Group 23–Jul 26 500 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 41
link
Global Strategy Group 23–Jul 26 500 LV
Democrat 53 Republican 39
link
Impact Research Protecting American Consumers Together 9–Feb 17 500 LV
Democrat 42 Republican 35
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

NY-18, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RYAN, PATRICK

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ryan, Patrick

  • Republican Challenger

    Auringer, Jackie Mary

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
13.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026