Riding profile

CA-2

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-2, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HUFFMAN, JARED

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Huffman, Jared

  • Democrat Challenger

    Yee, Rose Penelope Lagoc

  • Other Challenger

    Burgess, Gregory Warren

  • Other Challenger

    Hahn, Nicolette G.

  • Republican Challenger

    Geist, Timothy David Mr

  • Republican Challenger

    Saulsbury, Paul W

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 65.2%
  • Republican 34.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-2 65.2%34.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +13.3 46.6% −11.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
36.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 1 (06001) 55%
  • Congressional District 2 (06002) 45%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026