California’s 4th District
U.S. House · CA-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-4 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+9.0 | 43.9%−7.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Mike Thompson · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Mike Thompson · Advanced to the general election | 41.0% | 84,753 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Eric Jones · Advanced to the general election | 22.2% | 45,992 votes |
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 29.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 27.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 4 45%
- Former district 1 40%
- Former district 3 13%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated