Riding profile

CA-8

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-8, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GARAMENDI, JOHN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Garamendi, John

  • Democrat Challenger

    Carjuzaa, Nicolas

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lamba, Harinder Singh

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rowden, Aaron B

  • Republican Challenger

    Recile, Rudy

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 69.7%
  • Republican 30.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-8 69.7%30.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +17.8 46.6% −16.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
35.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 4 (06004) 44%
  • Congressional District 8 (06008) 37%
  • Congressional District 9 (06009) 10%
  • Congressional District 7 (06007) 10%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026