Riding profile

CA-12

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-12, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 99-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 91% vote share, against 9% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SIMON, LATEEFAH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Simon, Lateefah

  • Democrat Challenger

    Joyce, Jamie

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
81.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 90.6%
  • Republican 9.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-12 90.6%9.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +38.7 46.6% −37.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
98.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026