Advanced to the general election
Lateefah Simon 84.4%
Advanced to the general election
Jamie Joyce 15.6%
Riding profile
CA-12
The question
CA-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 87.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-12 | 93.6% | 6.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +39.2 | 44.9% −38.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-12, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 99-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 94% vote share, against 6% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
SIMON, LATEEFAH
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Simon, Lateefah
- Democrat Challenger
Joyce, Jamie
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026