Riding profile

CA-17

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-17: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
50.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.3%

    Rohit Khanna incumbent

  • Republican 24.7%

    Ritesh Tandon

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-17 75.3%24.7%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +21.0 44.9% −20.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

CA-17, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 75% vote share, against 25% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KHANNA, ROHIT

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Top-two primary

Advanced to the general election

Ro Khanna 62.3%

83,051 votes

Advanced to the general election

Ritesh Tandon 14.8%

19,793 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Khanna, Rohit

  • Republican Challenger

    Tandon, Ritesh

  • Other Open seat

    Ro Khanna

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
36.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 17 (06017) 94%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026