Riding profile

CA-15

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-15: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-15, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 47-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 77% vote share, against 23% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MULLIN, KEVIN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mullin, Kevin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dang, Anthony Van

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kumar, Mantosh

  • Republican Challenger

    Kramer, Anna

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
54.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 77.0%
  • Republican 23.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-15 77.0%23.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +25.1 46.6% −23.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
46.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026