Advanced to the general election
Kevin Mullin 65.0%
Advanced to the general election
Charles Hoelter 18.4%
Riding profile
CA-15
The question
CA-15: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 59.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-15 | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +25.5 | 44.9% −24.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-15, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 47-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 80% vote share, against 20% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
MULLIN, KEVIN
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Mullin, Kevin
-
Republican Open seat Charles Hoelter
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026