California’s 14th District
U.S. House · CA-14
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 46.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-14 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+18.4 | 43.9%−17.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 20.7% (± 0.6) |
|---|
Current member
Swalwell, Eric Michael · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Aisha Wahab · Advanced to the general election | 38.3% | 59,238 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Melissa Hernandez · Advanced to the general election | 17.2% | 26,579 votes |
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 35.7 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 46.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated