Riding profile

CA-14

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-14: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-14, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 72% vote share, against 28% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SWALWELL, ERIC MICHAEL

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Aisha Wahab 29%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Apr 4, 2026 · bydavid_binder_research

Republican

Wendy Huang 9%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Apr 4, 2026 · bydavid_binder_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Swalwell, Eric Michael

  • Democrat Open seat

    Elam, Carin

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hernandez, Melissa

  • Democrat Open seat

    Israni, Rakhi

  • Democrat Open seat

    Ortega, Matt

  • Democrat Open seat

    Qadir, Abrar

  • Democrat Open seat

    Ridenour, Sheriene

  • Democrat Open seat

    Wahab, Aisha

  • Republican Open seat

    Huang, Wendy Fiona Ms.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 71.6%
  • Republican 28.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-14 71.6%28.4%
National averageUnited States 52.8% +18.7 45.6% −17.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
35.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026