Riding profile

CA-9

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-9: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-9, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HARDER, JOSH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Harder, Josh

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcbride, John

  • Republican Challenger

    Shoemaker, James H

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.7%
  • Republican 41.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-9 58.7%41.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +6.8 46.6% −5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
9.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.8 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 9 (06009) 81%
  • Congressional District 10 (06010) 12%
  • Congressional District 8 (06008) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026