Advanced to the general election
Josh Harder 60.8%
Advanced to the general election
John McBride 23.3%
Riding profile
CA-9
The question
CA-9: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 22.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-9 | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +7.1 | 44.9% −6.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-9, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
HARDER, JOSH
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Harder, Josh
-
Republican Challenger Mcbride, John
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 9
(06009)81% - Congressional District 10
(06010)12% - Congressional District 8
(06008)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026