California’s 9th District
U.S. House · CA-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-9 | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+9.1 | 43.9%−7.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Josh Harder · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Josh Harder · Advanced to the general election | 60.8% | 79,946 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | John McBride · Advanced to the general election | 23.3% | 30,625 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 9.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 28.0 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 9 81%
- Former district 10 12%
- Former district 8 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated