Riding profile

CA-7

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-7, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MATSUI, DORIS

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Doris O. Matsui 24%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll May 5, 2026 · bydata_for_progress

Republican

Zachariah Wooden 15%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll May 5, 2026 · bydata_for_progress

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Matsui, Doris

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lee, Erica

  • Democrat Challenger

    Morin, Robert

  • Democrat Challenger

    Vang, Mai

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.3%
  • Republican 40.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-7 59.3%40.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +7.5 46.6% −6.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
20.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 7 (06007) 35%
  • Congressional District 9 (06009) 26%
  • Congressional District 5 (06005) 25%
  • Congressional District 3 (06003) 12%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026