Riding profile

CA-7

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.1%
  • Republican 37.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-7 62.1%37.9%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +7.8 44.9% −7.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Data For Progress Justice Democrats | Leaders We Deserve | Working Families Party PAC 18–Aug 21 651 LV
Democrat 60
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

CA-7, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MATSUI, DORIS

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Top-two primary

Advanced to the general election

Mai Vang 31.2%

65,617 votes

Advanced to the general election

Doris Matsui 29.1%

61,114 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Matsui, Doris

  • Democrat Challenger

    Vang, Mai

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
20.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 7 (06007) 35%
  • Congressional District 9 (06009) 26%
  • Congressional District 5 (06005) 25%
  • Congressional District 3 (06003) 12%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026