California’s 3rd District
U.S. House · CA-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-3 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+6.0 | 43.9%−4.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 12.1% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Ami Bera · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Ami Bera · Advanced to the general election | 34.3% | 76,653 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Robb Tucker · Advanced to the general election | 29.9% | 66,808 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 11.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 21.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated