Riding profile

CA-3

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-3, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BERA, AMERISH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Bera, Amerish

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bennett, Christopher Jerman

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cervantes, Lyndon

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hall, Heidi

  • Republican Challenger

    Bish, Christine S

  • Republican Challenger

    Tucker, Robb

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.3%
  • Republican 44.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-3 55.3%44.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +3.4 46.6% −2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Tulchin Research 8–Jul 10 400 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 45
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
11.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026