Advanced to the general election
James Gallagher 42.1%
Advanced to the general election
Mike McGuire 41.8%
Riding profile
CA-1
The question
CA-1: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-1 | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +7.3 | 44.9% −6.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-1, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
LAMALFA, DOUG
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Challenger
Mcguire, Mike
-
Republican Challenger Gallagher, James
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 1
(06001)59% - Congressional District 3
(06003)20% - Congressional District 2
(06002)15% - Congressional District 4
(06004)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026