Mike McGuire 33%
Riding profile
CA-1
The question
CA-1: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?
Editorial read
CA-1, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
LAMALFA, DOUG
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Who leads in the primary
James Gallagher 30%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Lamalfa, Doug
-
Democrat Challenger Denney, Audrey
- Democrat Challenger
Mcguire, Mike
- Democrat Challenger
Salegui, James
- Democrat Challenger
Wilson, Kyle
- Republican Challenger
Gallagher, James
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-1 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 51.9% +7.0 | 46.6% −5.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 1
(06001)59% - Congressional District 3
(06003)20% - Congressional District 2
(06002)15% - Congressional District 4
(06004)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026