California’s 1st District
U.S. House · CA-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 96% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 96% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-1 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+5.7 | 43.9%−4.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Lamalfa, Doug · Republican
Primary results
| Top-two primary | James Gallagher · Advanced to the general election | 42.1% | 92,975 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Mike McGuire · Advanced to the general election | 41.8% | 92,121 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 28.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 21.2 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 1 59%
- Former district 3 20%
- Former district 2 15%
- Former district 4 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated