Advanced to the general election
Kevin Kiley 24.3%
Advanced to the general election
Richard Pan 23.2%
Riding profile
CA-6
The question
CA-6: will Other lose this seat to Democrat?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-6 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +5.6 | 44.9% −4.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group Independent Center | Independent Leadership Council | 13–Jul 16 | 741 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
CA-6, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
KILEY, KEVIN
Sits with Other
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Incumbent
Kiley, Kevin
- Democrat Challenger
Pan, Richard Dr.
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 6
(06006)49% - Congressional District 3
(06003)37% - Congressional District 7
(06007)13%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026