California’s 6th District
U.S. House · CA-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 93% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 93% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 96% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-6 | 60.1% | 40.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+5.2 | 43.9%−3.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
3 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Kevin Kiley · Other
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Kevin Kiley · Advanced to the general election | 24.3% | 47,165 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Richard Pan · Advanced to the general election | 23.2% | 45,008 votes |
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 16.2 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 20.2 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 6 49%
- Former district 3 37%
- Former district 7 13%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated