Richard Pan 18%
Riding profile
CA-6
The question
CA-6: will Other lose this seat to Democrat?
Editorial read
CA-6, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
KILEY, KEVIN
Sits with Other
Primary race
Who leads in the primary
Kevin Kiley 36%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Incumbent
Kiley, Kevin
-
Democrat Challenger Babb Tomlinson, Lauren
- Democrat Challenger
Guerrero, Martha
- Democrat Challenger
Ho, Thien
- Democrat Challenger
Pan, Richard Dr.
- Democrat Challenger
Vandenberg, Tyler Isaac
-
Republican Challenger Stansfield, Michael
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-6 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 51.9% +5.4 | 46.6% −3.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 6
(06006)49% - Congressional District 3
(06003)37% - Congressional District 7
(06007)13%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026