Riding profile

CA-10

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-10, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DESAULNIER, MARK

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Desaulnier, Mark

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hamilton, Joshua

  • Democrat Challenger

    Maisler, Mitchell David

  • Republican Challenger

    Griffiths, Angela

  • Republican Challenger

    Piccinini, Katherine

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 69.7%
  • Republican 30.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-10 69.7%30.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +17.8 46.6% −16.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
32.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 10 (06010) 75%
  • Congressional District 8 (06008) 10%
  • Congressional District 14 (06014) 9%
  • Congressional District 9 (06009) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026