Scott Wiener 38%
Riding profile
CA-11
The question
CA-11: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Editorial read
CA-11, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 62-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 87% vote share, against 13% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
PELOSI, NANCY
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Who leads in the primary
David Ganezer 5%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Pelosi, Nancy
- Democrat Open seat
Chakrabarti, Saikat
- Democrat Open seat
Chan, Connie
- Democrat Open seat
Hamid, Omed
- Democrat Open seat
Helton, Darren Wayne
- Democrat Open seat
Hurabiell, Marie
- Democrat Open seat
Wiener, Scott
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 74.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-11 | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 51.9% +35.3 | 46.6% −33.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research | 12–Sep 20 | 600 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026