Advanced to the general election
Scott Wiener 40.7%
Advanced to the general election
Connie Chan 29.7%
Riding profile
CA-11
The question
CA-11: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 80.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-11 | 90.1% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +35.8 | 44.9% −35.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | 14–Jul 19 | 500 | LV | link | |
| Beacon Research | 12–Sep 20 | 600 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
CA-11, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 62-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 90% vote share, against 10% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
PELOSI, NANCY
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Chan, Connie
- Democrat Open seat
Wiener, Scott
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026