California’s 11th District

U.S. House · CA-11

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 80.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 90.0%
Republican 10.0%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	> 99%
50/50 blend	Democrat	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
CA-11	90.0%	10.0%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+35.1	43.9%−33.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Usc Democracy And Fair Elections Lab	16–Oct 19, 2026	454	likely voters	Scott Wiener (D) 51 Connie Chan (D) 44	See the poll
Tavern Research Jobs and Democracy PAC	15–Sep 17, 2026	658	likely voters	Scott Wiener (D) 53 Connie Chan (D) 47	See the poll
Lake Research Partners	14–Jul 19, 2026	500	likely voters	Scott Wiener (D) 45 Connie Chan (D) 40	See the poll
Beacon Research	12–Sep 20, 2025	600	registered voters	Nancy Pelosi (D) 47 Saikat Chakrabarti (D) 34	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	12.0% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Pelosi, Nancy · Democrat

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Top-two primary	Scott Wiener · Advanced to the general election	40.7%	95,816 votes
Top-two primary	Connie Chan · Advanced to the general election	29.7%	69,899 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Connie Chan
source
Democrat Open seat

Scott Wiener
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 62.1 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 80.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

CA-12 Democrat, safe seat
CA-15 Democrat, safe seat
CA-10 Democrat, safe seat
CA-16 Democrat, safe seat
CA-14 Democrat, safe seat
CA-17 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026