Riding profile

CA-16

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-16: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-16, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 99-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 77% vote share, against 23% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LICCARDO, SAM T.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Liccardo, Sam T.

  • Other Challenger

    Stein, Jotham

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
54.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 77.1%
  • Republican 22.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-16 77.1%22.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +25.2 46.6% −23.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
99.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-45.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026