Utah’s 2nd District

U.S. House · UT-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 57.9%

Blake Moore, incumbent
Democrat 42.2%

Peter Crosby

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 90% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	97%
Orbit	Republican	90%
50/50 blend	Republican	94%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
UT-2	57.9%	42.2%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+14.0	54.9%−12.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Lighthouse Research Utah Debate Comission	10–Sep 24, 2026	515	registered voters	Blake Moore (R) 39 Peter Crosby (D) 34 Robert Moesinger (NPA) 5 Daniel Cottam (Lib.) 5 Carlton Bowen (IAP) 4	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	12.4% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Blake Moore · Republican

Primary results

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Peter Crosby	0.0%
Republican primary	Blake Moore	56.7%	52,673 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Blake Moore
source
Democrat Challenger

Peter Crosby
source
Other Challenger

Bowen, Carlton E

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Moesinger, Robert Michael

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 30.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 16.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

UT-1 Democrat, safe seat
UT-4 Republican, safe seat
UT-3 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026