Riding profile

UT-2

US House district — UT · Mixed · us ut

The question

UT-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

UT-2, a mixed riding in UT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MOORE, BLAKE

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Blake D. Moore 63%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll May 14, 2026 · bytarrance_group

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Moore, Blake

  • Democrat Challenger

    Crosby, Peter

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gillins, Jarom

  • Democrat Challenger

    Merrill, Steven

  • Republican Challenger

    Lisonbee, Karianne

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.8%
  • Democrat 38.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereUT-2 61.8%38.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.2 51.9% −13.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
30.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026