Riding profile

UT-1

US House district — UT · Mixed · us ut

The question

UT-1: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?

Editorial read

UT-1, a mixed riding in UT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Ben McAdams 37%

4 candidates polled · Latest poll May 29, 2026 · byupswing_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Blouin, Nate

  • Democrat Challenger

    Farrell, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kitchen, Derek

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lopez Chavez, Eva

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mcadams, Ben

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mohamed, Liban

  • Democrat Challenger

    Riebe, Kathleen

  • Republican Challenger

    Owen, Riley Montgomery

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 65.4%
  • Republican 34.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereUT-1 65.4%34.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +13.5 46.6% −12.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
28.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 2 (49002) 42%
  • Congressional District 3 (49003) 23%
  • Congressional District 1 (49001) 20%
  • Congressional District 4 (49004) 15%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026