Riding profile
UT-1
The question
UT-1: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 36.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereUT-1 | 68.3% | 31.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +13.9 | 44.9% −13.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
UT-1, a mixed riding in UT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Challenger
Blouin, Nate
- Democrat Challenger
Farrell, Michael
- Democrat Challenger
Kitchen, Derek
- Democrat Challenger
Lopez Chavez, Eva
- Democrat Challenger
Mcadams, Ben
- Democrat Challenger
Mohamed, Liban
- Democrat Challenger
Riebe, Kathleen
-
Republican Challenger Owen, Riley Montgomery
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 2
(49002)42% - Congressional District 3
(49003)23% - Congressional District 1
(49001)20% - Congressional District 4
(49004)15%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026