Riding profile
UT-4
The question
UT-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereUT-4 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +15.9 | 54.3% −15.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
UT-4, a mixed riding in UT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
OWENS, BURGESS
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Open seat
Burt, Steven
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 2
(49002)84% - Congressional District 4
(49004)16%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026