Riding profile

UT-4

US House district — UT · Mixed · us ut

The question

UT-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

UT-4, a mixed riding in UT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

OWENS, BURGESS

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Kennedy, Mike

  • Republican Incumbent

    Owens, Burgess

  • Democrat Open seat

    Larsen, Jonny

  • Other Open seat

    Burt, Steven

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.4%
  • Democrat 36.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereUT-4 63.4%36.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +16.8 51.9% −15.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 2 (49002) 84%
  • Congressional District 4 (49004) 16%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026