Utah’s 4th District

U.S. House · UT-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 59.7%

Mike Kennedy, incumbent
Democrat 40.3%

Jonny Larsen

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 94% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	99%
Orbit	Republican	94%
50/50 blend	Republican	96%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
UT-4	59.7%	40.3%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+15.8	54.9%−14.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Lighthouse Research Utah Debate Comission	8–Sep 17, 2026	513	registered voters	Mike Kennedy (R) 42 Jonny Larsen (D) 33 Steven Burt (NPA) 6 Taylor Wright (Lib.) 5	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Owens, Burgess · Republican

Primary results

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jonny Larsen	0.0%
Republican primary	Mike Kennedy	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mike Kennedy
source
Democrat Open seat

Jonny Larsen
source
Other Open seat

Burt, Steven

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 25.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.5 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 2 84%
Former district 4 16%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

UT-1 Democrat, safe seat
UT-3 Republican, safe seat
UT-2 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026