Riding profile

UT-3

US House district — UT · Mixed · us ut

The question

UT-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.5%
  • Democrat 34.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereUT-3 65.5%34.5%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +20.5 54.3% −19.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

UT-3, a mixed riding in UT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MALOY, CELESTE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Maloy, Celeste

  • Democrat Challenger

    Merrill, Steven

  • Democrat Challenger

    Udell, Kent Dr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Harris, David

  • Republican Challenger

    Lyman, Phillip Kay

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
29.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.8 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 3 (49003) 55%
  • Congressional District 2 (49002) 40%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026