Riding profile

UT-3

US House district — UT · Mixed · us ut

The question

UT-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

UT-3, a mixed riding in UT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MALOY, CELESTE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Maloy, Celeste

  • Democrat Challenger

    Merrill, Steven

  • Democrat Challenger

    Udell, Kent Dr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Harris, David

  • Republican Challenger

    Lyman, Phillip Kay

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 68.0%
  • Democrat 32.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereUT-3 68.0%32.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +21.4 51.9% −19.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
29.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 3 (49003) 55%
  • Congressional District 2 (49002) 40%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026