Riding profile

NC-1

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-1: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

NC-1, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

DAVIS, DON

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Laurie Buckhout 26%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 8, 2026 · byemerson_college

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Davis, Don

  • Republican Challenger

    Buck, Asa Bryant III

  • Republican Challenger

    Buckhout, Laurie

  • Republican Challenger

    Hanig, Bobby

  • Republican Challenger

    Roberson, Sandy

  • Republican Challenger

    Russell, Ashley Nicole

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
2.8
P(close race)
95%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.4%
  • Democrat 48.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNC-1 51.4%48.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +4.7 51.9% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Gqr 22–Jun 28 500 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 41
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 25–Apr 29 842 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 42
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 25–Apr 29 842 LV
Democrat 41 Republican 41
link
Gqr Jan 29 – Feb 2 500 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 43
link
Gqr Jan 29 – Feb 2 500 LV
Democrat 42 Republican 39
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
26.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 1 (37001) 54%
  • Congressional District 3 (37003) 46%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026