Winner
Laurie Buckhout 39.5%
Riding profile
NC-1
The question
NC-1: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 99%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-1 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −3.2 | 44.9% +3.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
6 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gbao House Majority PAC | 8–Sep 11 | 500 | LV | link | |
| Gqr | 22–Jun 28 | 500 | LV | link | |
| Co/Efficient NRCC | 25–Apr 29 | 842 | LV | link | |
| Co/Efficient NRCC | 25–Apr 29 | 842 | LV | link | |
| Gqr | Jan 29 – Feb 2 | 500 | LV | link | |
| Gqr | Jan 29 – Feb 2 | 500 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NC-1, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
DAVIS, DON
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Challenger Buckhout, Laurie
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 1
(37001)54% - Congressional District 3
(37003)46%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026