North Carolina’s 1st District

U.S. House · NC-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 69% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 42%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 51.9%

Don Davis, incumbent
Republican 48.0%

Laurie Buckhout

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 51% chance (69% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	69%
Orbit	Democrat	51%
50/50 blend	Democrat	60%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NC-1	51.9%	48.0%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−3.0	43.9%+4.2	1.2%−1.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

7 polls, 11 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Co/Efficient Scenario 1	6–Oct 8, 2026	623	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 46 Generic Democrat (D) 45 Generic Candidate (OTH) 1	See the poll
Co/Efficient Scenario 2	6–Oct 8, 2026	623	likely voters	Laurie Buckhout (R) 43 Don Davis (D) 42 Thomas Aaron Bailey (Lib.) 2	See the poll
Neighborhood Research Corporation Scenario 1	1–Oct 6, 2026	303	likely voters	Don Davis (D) 51 Laurie Buckhout (R) 41	See the poll
Neighborhood Research Corporation Scenario 2	1–Oct 6, 2026	303	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 44 Generic Democrat (D) 40	See the poll
Gqr	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	500	likely voters	Don Davis (D) 47 Laurie Buckhout (R) 39	See the poll
Gbao House Majority PAC	8–Sep 11, 2026	500	likely voters	Don Davis (D) 50 Laurie Buckhout (R) 43	See the poll
Gqr	22–Jun 28, 2026	500	likely voters	Don Davis (D) 45 Laurie Buckhout (R) 41	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 1	25–Apr 29, 2026	842	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 46 Generic Democrat (D) 42	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 2	25–Apr 29, 2026	842	likely voters	Don Davis (D) 41 Laurie Buckhout (R) 41	See the poll
Gqr Scenario 1	Jan 29, 2026 – Feb 2, 2026	500	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 47 Generic Democrat (D) 43	See the poll
Gqr Scenario 2	Jan 29, 2026 – Feb 2, 2026	500	likely voters	Don Davis (D) 42 Laurie Buckhout (R) 39 Thomas Aaron Bailey (Lib.) 9	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Don Davis · Democrat

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Don Davis	0.0%
Republican primary	Laurie Buckhout	39.5%	26,624 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Don Davis
source
Republican Challenger

Laurie Buckhout
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 26.3 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.3 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 1 54%
Former district 3 46%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NC-3 Republican, toss-up
NC-13 Republican, toss-up
NC-2 Democrat, safe seat
NC-7 Republican, toss-up
NC-4 Democrat, safe seat
NC-9 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026