Winner
Paul Barringer 59.1%
Riding profile
NC-13
The question
NC-13: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.0
- P(close race)
- 51%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-13 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +7.6 | 54.3% −6.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NC-13, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
KNOTT, BRAD
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Brad Knott 89.9%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Knott, Brad
-
Democrat Challenger Barringer, Paul
- Other Challenger
Aguilar, Anthony Bailey Mr.
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026