Riding profile

NC-13

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-13: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NC-13, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KNOTT, BRAD

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Knott, Brad

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barringer, Paul

  • Democrat Challenger

    Nicholi, Alexander

  • Other Challenger

    Aguilar, Anthony Bailey Mr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcconkey, Josh

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.2%
  • Democrat 44.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNC-13 55.2%44.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.5 51.9% −7.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
17.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026