North Carolina’s 13th District

U.S. House · NC-13

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.1%

Brad Knott, incumbent
Democrat 46.9%

Paul Barringer

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 62% chance (78% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	78%
Orbit	Republican	62%
50/50 blend	Republican	70%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NC-13	53.1%	46.9%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+9.2	54.9%−8.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.5% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Brad Knott · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Paul Barringer	59.1%	29,743 votes
Republican primary	Brad Knott	89.9%	44,038 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Brad Knott
source
Democrat Challenger

Paul Barringer
source
Other Challenger

Aguilar, Anthony Bailey Mr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 17.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NC-2 Democrat, safe seat
NC-4 Democrat, safe seat
NC-3 Republican, toss-up
NC-9 Republican, competitive
NC-7 Republican, toss-up
NC-6 Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026