Riding profile

NC-6

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NC-6, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCDOWELL, ADDISON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mcdowell, Addison

  • Democrat Challenger

    Blair, Beau

  • Democrat Challenger

    Davenport, Keith

  • Democrat Challenger

    Felton-Stackhouse, Tavin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jefferson, Cyril

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kassay, Alysa

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.8%
  • Democrat 44.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNC-6 55.8%44.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +9.1 51.9% −7.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026