Winner
Cyril Jefferson 39.2%
Riding profile
NC-6
The question
NC-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.2
- P(close race)
- 28%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-6 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +8.2 | 54.3% −7.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NC-6, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
MCDOWELL, ADDISON
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Jefferson, Cyril
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026