North Carolina’s 6th District
U.S. House · NC-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.3 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 65% chance (77% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 77% |
| Orbit | Republican | 65% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 71% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| NC-6 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+9.1 | 54.9%−7.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 5.8% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Addison McDowell · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Cyril Jefferson | 39.2% | 15,274 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Addison McDowell | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 38.2 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated