North Carolina’s 12th District
U.S. House · NC-12
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 58.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| NC-12 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+24.1 | 43.9%−22.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 8.2% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Alma Shealey Adams · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Alma Shealey Adams | 78.9% | 54,630 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jack Codiga | 67.4% | 6,569 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 47.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 58.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated