Riding profile

NC-12

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NC-12, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 75% vote share, against 25% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ADAMS, ALMA SHEALEY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Adams, Alma Shealey

  • Other Challenger

    Rabah, Ryan

  • Other Challenger

    Smith, Charay Dr

  • Republican Challenger

    Ali, Addul Rahman Eli

  • Republican Challenger

    Codiga, John Jack

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
50.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.3%
  • Republican 24.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereNC-12 75.3%24.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +23.5 46.6% −22.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
47.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026