Winner
Lakesha Womack 52.2%
Riding profile
NC-14
The question
NC-14: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.1
- P(close race)
- 68%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-14 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +7.1 | 54.3% −6.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 10–Mar 12 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 10–Mar 12 | 400 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NC-14, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
MOORE, TIM
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Tim Moore 83.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Moore, Tim
-
Democrat Challenger Womack, Lakesha
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026