North Carolina’s 14th District

U.S. House · NC-14

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 38%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 52.8%

Tim Moore, incumbent
Democrat 47.2%

Lakesha Womack

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 59% chance (76% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	76%
Orbit	Republican	59%
50/50 blend	Republican	68%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NC-14	52.8%	47.2%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+8.9	54.9%−7.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 2 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 47 Generic Democrat (D) 38	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Tim Moore (R) 48 LaKesha Womack (D) 40	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.3% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Tim Moore · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Lakesha Womack	52.2%	20,641 votes
Republican primary	Tim Moore	83.0%	42,545 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Tim Moore
source
Democrat Challenger

Lakesha Womack
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 16.2 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NC-11 Democrat, toss-up
NC-5 Republican, competitive
NC-10 Republican, competitive
NC-12 Democrat, safe seat
NC-6 Republican, toss-up
NC-8 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026