Riding profile

NC-11

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-11: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

NC-11, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

EDWARDS, CHUCK

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Edwards, Chuck

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ager, Jamie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Briarwood, Zelda

  • Democrat Challenger

    Davis, Morris D. Col.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Harjes, Christopher John

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hudspeth, Richard Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lawrence, Jacob

  • Democrat Challenger

    Maddox, Paul

  • Republican Challenger

    Smith, Adam R.

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
3.9
P(close race)
70%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.9%
  • Democrat 48.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNC-11 51.9%48.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.2 51.9% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
13.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026