Winner
Jamie Ager 64.7%
Riding profile
NC-11
The question
NC-11: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 74%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-11 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −3.9 | 44.9% +4.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling The Bench | 10–Sep 11 | 531 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling The Bench | 10–Sep 11 | 531 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NC-11, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
EDWARDS, CHUCK
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Chuck Edwards 70.1%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Edwards, Chuck
- Democrat Challenger
Ager, Jamie
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026