North Carolina’s 11th District

U.S. House · NC-11

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 67% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.2 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 51.8%

Jamie Ager
Republican 48.2%

Jennifer Balkcom

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 57% chance (67% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	67%
Orbit	Democrat	57%
50/50 blend	Democrat	62%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
NC-11	51.8%	48.2%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−3.1	43.9%+4.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 3 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Emerson College Poll Vault	12–Oct 14, 2026	388	likely voters	Jamie Ager (D) 56 Jennifer Balkcom (R) 43	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 1	10–Sep 11, 2026	531	registered voters	Jamie Ager (D) 47 Generic Republican (R) 44	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 2	10–Sep 11, 2026	531	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 50 Generic Democrat (D) 46	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.9% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Chuck Edwards · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jamie Ager	64.7%	49,193 votes
Republican primary	Jennifer Balkcom	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Jamie Ager
source
Republican Challenger

Jennifer Balkcom
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 13.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.2 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NC-14 Republican, toss-up
NC-5 Republican, competitive
NC-10 Republican, competitive
NC-12 Democrat, safe seat
NC-6 Republican, toss-up
NC-8 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026